2024 Grammy Predictions

This spring, actors and musicians are meeting in LA for the 2024 Grammy Awards. The annual event is a celebration of artists’ achievements throughout the previous year. As the most prestigious award ceremony in the music industry, the Grammys are annual subjects of massive attention and scrutiny. As the 2024 Grammys creep nearer, here are my projected winners.  

Record Of The Year: 

“Worship,” Jon Batiste

“Not Strong Enough,” Boygenius

“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus

“What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish

“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét

“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo

“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift

“Kill Bill,” SZA

Record Of The Year is awarded to the performing artist, producer, and/or recording engineer of a single track. This year, “About Damn Time” by Lizzo took home the prize, while “Leave the Door Open” by Silk Sonic won in 2022.

“Flowers” and “On My Mama” did not receive the same critical success as their competitors. Although the Grammys do not claim to be a popularity contest, the academy is certainly swayed by those who are most culturally present. Neither Cyrus nor Monét reached that status in 2023. 

“Vampire” is a magnificent song, but one more suited for Song Of The Year. Rodrigo’s identity as an artist is heavily tied to her singer-songwriter status, setting her up for success in categories less production-tied. 

“Worship” has a strong lead among its contenders, as Batiste unexpectedly won Album Of The Year in 2022. Although not commercially popular, he is highly respected among artists in the industry.

“Not Strong Enough” is the perfect Record Of The Year contender and my personal winner. The production is well done, the track is commercially successful and the song is well-written. 

“What Was I Made For” is another strong leader. In 2020, Eilish swept all of the big four categories. “No Time to Die,” a track written for the James Bond movie, was awarded in 2021. The academy highly favors Eilish’s movie music. 

Fineas, Eilish’s producer and brother, is 2020’s Producer Of The Year. His presence on “What I Was Made For?” in a production-focused category gives the record an advantage.  

“Anti-Hero” is another obvious winner. Jack Antonoff, Swift’s producer, has received plenty of Grammy wins, and Swift is having a more-than-spectacular year. Her cultural impact is unmatched. 

My only fear is that Swift has become too big for the world’s biggest award ceremony. I can see academy voters avoiding her entirely in an attempt to be unpredictable. The Grammys frequently sway between popularity and prestige, and their preference in the year of Swift is unknown.

“Kill Bill” was another cultural moment. 

“I think the chorus is really catchy,” senior Rylie Ovel said, “it doesn’t take itself too seriously. I think a lot of people respect [SZA’s] music.”

The song defined its release period and has all the qualities of previous winners. However, it does not seem to have the cultural longevity of its competitors. 

Predicted Winner: “What Was I Made For?” By Billie Eilish. Eilish has everything. “Barbie’s” cultural impact, musical popularity, previous Grammy awards, a world-class producer and a beautifully written, emotional song. The record is the most well-rounded in the category. If she can beat Swift’s popularity, she’ll take Record Of The Year.

Song Of The Year

“A&W,” Lana Del Rey

“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift

“Butterfly,” John Batiste

“Dance The Night,” Dua Lipa

“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus

“Kill Bill,” SZA

“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo

“What Was I Made For,” Billie Eilish

Song Of The Year is focused on songwriting rather than the holistic production of the record. This year, Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That” unexpectedly won the category. In 2022, “Leave The Door Open” by Silk Sonic was awarded and H.E.R.’s “I Can’t Breathe” the year before.

“Flowers” contains a sample from Bruno Mars’ “When I Was Your Man.” For that reason, it is disadvantaged in the original songwriting category. 

“Dance The Night” is a catchy tune, but one that exists most impressively in the context of “Barbie.” When standing on its own, it may not beat its competitors’ songwriting quality.
“A&W” is a unique song from a veteran artist who has been continually snubbed by the Grammys. Although Lana Del Rey has been nominated, she has never won. The combination of a unique song and a Grammy-neglected artist sets her up for failure, despite how deserving she is. 

“Butterfly” comes from a prestigious artist, but does not stand out among its contenders. While it may have won in a previous year, 2024’s nominations are too good. 

“Kill Bill” struggles with the same issues previously mentioned in Record Of The Year. It is a great song without longevity, released too long ago to be prominent among the voter’s minds. 

“Vampire,” “What I Was Made For” and “Anti-Hero” are this category’s most likely contenders. As 2021’s Best New Artist, Rodrigo is slated for many Grammy nods throughout her career. “Vampire” is a cleverly written hit.

“What I Was Made For” is a magnificent song and able to stand on its own without “Barbie.” Despite this, the academy of voters may be avoiding another Eilish sweep, which left both the Grammys and Eilish facing backlash from angry fans. 

“Anti-Hero” is well-written and a great taste of what Swift does best: storytelling. It is ironic, witty and different from her past singles. However, I still believe that the academy is reluctant to give a multitude of awards to an already decorated artist. 

Predicted Winner: “Vampire” by Olivia Rodrigo. Although it would not be Rodrigo’s first Grammy award, it would be her first win in the genre-surpassing categories. After her breakthrough single, “Drivers License,” critics pondered whether she would keep gaining traction or fall into one-hit-wonder status. Rodrigo has only gotten bigger. It takes a brilliantly written lead single to outdo the success of her first hit, and “Vampire” is exactly that.  

Best New Artist

Gracie Abrams

Fred Again…

Ice Spice

Jelly Roll

Coco Jones

Noah Kahan

Victoria Monét

The War And Treaty

Best New Artist is the academy’s attempt at predicting the next big thing. Winners like Rodrigo and Eilish go on to be the biggest artists in the world, while others fade into oblivion. Samara Joy won this year’s award, and she has gained little traction since then. 

Additionally, the academy’s definition of “new” is loose. Any musician who has not been nominated for a Grammy can be the Best New Artist. This leaves artists with decade-long careers competing against rookies with little experience or prestige.

As Best New Artist is an attempt to predict popularity, there are a few nominees that can be ruled out. Jelly Roll has been releasing music since 2011. Although he has an audience, he does not have universal appeal.

Fred Again… and The War And Treaty are the same, known in their respective genres, but not strong contenders in any of the big four categories, which favor popular music. 

Monét just released a commercially successful single, “On My Mama,” but she has been releasing music since 2014, and does not seem to have the relevance of other nominees. Jones is in the same position. 

Abrams, Kahan, and Ice Spice are competing for the prize. Abrams released her debut album, “Good Riddance” in March. She is a magnificent writer with a promising career ahead of her. However, she does not seem to have the universality of Kahan or Ice Spice, who have both had breakout years.

Kahan’s lyrics resonate deeply with his listeners.

“It’s the topics he writes about,” senior Rachel Coon claimed, “He’s very vulnerable and a lyrical genius.” Kahan released his third album, “Stick Season” in 2022. He sings about mental health and growing up in Vermont.

“His lyrics connect to a lot of people and make you feel seen in a way,” Coon stated.

Ice Spice went viral on TikTok after the release of “Boys a liar Pt. 2” with Pink Pantheress. Her iconic red hair quickly became mainstream. She has yet to release a full album.

Predicted Winner: Noah Kahan. There are few folk-adjacent winners in the Best New Artist category, but Kahan has the momentum to change that. Although Ice Spice surpasses his cultural relevance, she has not released enough music to accurately predict her place in the music industry. Kahan is only going to get bigger.

Album Of The Year

“World Music Radio,” John Batiste

“the record,” Boygenius

“Endless Summer Vacation,” Miley Cyrus

“Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd,” Lana Del Rey

“The Age of Pleasure,” Janelle Monáe

“GUTS,” Olivia Rodrigo

“Midnights,” Taylor Swift

“SOS,” SZA

Album Of The Year is the biggest category of the night. This year, Harry Styles’ “Harry’s House” won the award. The two previous years, Batiste’s “We Are” and Swift’s “Folklore” took home the prize.

“World Music Radio” is unlikely to win after Batiste’s 2021 victory. He has not gained enough cultural prominence since then, despite the fact that the album is well done. “The Age of Pleasure” is in a similar position. Monét created a good album, but it has been pitted against the biggest artists in the world. 

“Endless Summer Vacation” and “Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd” are not their respective artists’ best works. It is unfortunate that the Grammys spent so many years neglecting their career-defining albums, ruining deserving artists’ chances at a win. Cyrus’ 2017 album “Younger Now,” and Del Rey’s 2019 album “Norman Fucking Rockwell” are more suited for academy awards. 

“SOS” was a magnificent album as a whole. SZA was under pressure to outdo her 2017 album “Control,” and “SOS” does just that.

“the record” is a brilliant piece of work. Boygenius is the musical union of Phoebe Bridgers, Lucy Dacus, and Julien Baker. Their solo work is brilliant in itself, but when they work together, they thrive. Although they are the underdogs, Boygenius has had an explosive year. Album Of The Year is a real possibility for them.

“GUTS” and “Midnights” are the most commercially successful of the nominees. “GUTS” is a terrific album that built off of what “SOUR” began.

Swift has won Album Of The Year three times. In 2010 for “Fearless,” in 2016 for “1989” and in 2021 for “Folklore.” Notably, all three albums were landmarks in her career. “Fearless” was her big break. “1989” marked her transition to pop. “Folklore” cemented her status as a “serious” and well-respected artist.

“Midnights” is not a career-defining album. Musically, it failed to have the impact of its predecessors. However, The Eras Tour catapulted Swift into her world-domination era, which was more than enough to make “Midnights” a cultural moment.

“You can enjoy it no matter who you are,” senior Sam Bishop claimed. “I think if it [Midnights] doesn’t [win Album Of The Year] it will be a huge upset,” she said.
Predicted Winner: “Midnights” by Taylor Swift. Swift is the people’s Barbie. It is her year, and if Album Of The Year went to anyone else, it would be overlooking the musical culture of 2023. The Grammys award the music industry, and Swift is the music industry.